Most of the time, most things go according to plan. At least, within the boundaries of what the reality is expected to be. When the realities start falling outside of these parameters, we need contingencies.
This is easy, merely because these contingencies are really just part of the realm of foreseeable possibilities.
The tricky part comes in creating contingencies for things that do not happen that often, or have not happened before. Sure, the big-ticket items are easy, you measure the cost of contingency with the cost of the event. We call this insurance.
It’s the small, low-cost events that catch us off guard. Especially when they get dragged out over longer periods than expected.
Waiting for the first rains to replace your windshield wipers, is a gamble. When the first rains last for three straight weeks, it becomes a risk. It might lead you to buy two sets and always have one as a spare.
There is always that first time before we figure out what contingencies are necessary.
Best to spot it early.