The fallacy of long-term thinking.

If you stretch a timeframe far enough anything becomes possible. Evolution makes sense over significant timeframes. Political intentions are possible over generations. Business visions are achievable when we stretch them beyond the horizon.

This untapped potential of time lends itself to abuse. It allows us to create any potential future by stretching far enough into the beyond. We can justify anything with a chain of causality that is long enough.

We should channel future plans through reality filters. Longer timeframes include more causal links. More links create more opportunities for failure. Risk increases. Exponentially.

Higher risk = lower possibility. Unmanaged, long-term thinking dissipates into dreaming instead.

Rita Chou

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