They are easy in isolation. They are slightly harder when we string them together.  The chances are smaller, but the possibilities are still known.

When we include people in the mix, this becomes infinitely harder. We have many social tools and behavioural predictors that attempt to predict individual and group behaviour. The relationships between the variables are so complex and interconnected that predictable outcomes become unrealistic. Even more so over longer time frames.

The future is one such a variable. We may predict specific things in isolation rather accurately, but the future is far too fluid. So we think in scenarios instead. We clump stuff together. We zoom out of the detail and design possible futures.

If we can do this fairly successfully at a global scale with very little control over the outcome, we should be better at this in our own business strategy and forecasting.

Perhaps the size of our clumps is too small.

Greg Rosenke

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