Time frames of this size make accuracy nearly impossible. As a result, we tend to approach it in one of two ways. We either avoid it altogether and plan on shorter time frames or we create our vision of the future and try our best to get there.
Shorter time frames are easier to implement and track. They expose us to disruption over time if we stop tracking the mega-trends that shape the future.
Pursuing the long-term vision creates unmanageable tension that is too far removed from current reality to ground in our current behaviour and decisions.
The alternative is to manage the tensions. To use a methodology that cascades intent from the long-term to the more manageable, bite-size chunks that are achievable in our current strategic period.
The biggest challenge is how we keep tabs on the megatrends in long time frames and adapt the short-term strategy accordingly.
It’s like setting a compass bearing, finding a point in the future and moving towards it. Every once in a while, check the compass to make sure you are still on track.